🚀 Starlink Revenues: $6.6B?

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The Space Scoop

Week Ended 05.10.2024

Happy Friday! Investors had a slew of space earnings to deal with this week, with five additional SPACs gearing up for reporting next week, and the team at Quilty Space hosted a webinar discussing their estimates and projections for SpaceX's Starlink. Lets dive in.

Market Max-Q

Top Stories

1) Q1 space earnings were in full swing this week with 8 companies reporting, including 4 four SPACs. Highlights include:

• $RKLB

  • Cash & Equivalents: $493M

  • Revenue: $93M, +69% YoY

  • Net Loss: $(44)M vs. $(46)M

  • Adj. EBITDA: $(22)M vs. $(26)M

  • Neutron Debut Slips to 2025

  • Shares: -2.2%

• $SPCE

  • Cash & Equivalents: $867M

  • Revenue: $2M, +400% YoY

  • Net Loss: $(102)M vs. $(159)M

  • Adj. EBITDA: $(87)M vs. $(149)M

  • FCF: $(126)M vs. $(139)M

  • Shares: -1.5%

• $BKSY

  • Cash & Equivalents: $36M

  • Revenue: $24M, +32% YoY

  • Net Loss: $(16)M vs. $(17)M

  • Adj. EBITDA: $2M vs. $(4)M

  • Shares: -7.9%

• $SATS

  • Cash & Equivalents: $767M

  • Revenue: $4B, -9% YoY

  • Net Income: $(108)M vs. $254M YoY

  • OIBDA: $470M, -33% YoY

  • Shares: -11.0%

• $GSAT

  • Cash & Equivalents: $59M

  • Total Revenue: $57M, -4% YoY

  • Net Loss: $(13)M vs. $(4)M

  • Adj. EBITDA: $(30)M, -9% YoY

  • Shares: -5.5%

• $RDW

  • Cash & Equivalents: $33M

  • Revenue: $88M, +53% YoY

  • Net Loss: $(8)M vs. $(7)M YoY

  • Adj. EBITDA: $4M, flat YoY

  • FCF: $1M vs. $(15)M YoY

  • Shares: +2.1%

• $MDA

  • Cash & Receivables: $408M

  • Revenue: $209M, +4% YoY

  • Net Income: $18M, -32% YoY

  • Adj. EBITDA: $42M, -14% YoY

  • Backlog: $3.3B, +169% YoY

  • Shares: -6.7%

• $TSAT

  • Cash & Equivalents: $2B

  • Revenue: $152M, -17% YoY

  • Net Income: $(52)M vs $28M

  • Adj. EBITDA: $111M, -20% YoY

  • Shares: -5.3%

2) Analysts suggest Starlink will be cash flow positive and generate $6.6B this year.

• On Thursday, Quilty Space, the space market research and consulting firm, hosted a webinar to discuss its latest financial model and projections for SpaceX's Starlink.

• The Florida-based firm calculates that SpaceX will generate $6.6B in revenue from Starlink in 2024, enough to generate positive FCF despite accounting for the costs to build and launch its satellites, which is up +372% from $1.4B in 2022.

• Quilty estimates that Starlink has 2.7M subscribers and growing across 75 countries with a constellation size of ~6,000 satellites (with 5,200 operational). Quilty states that SpaceX is able to keep its costs down "through aggressive vertical integration and high-volume production."

• “Starlink has been able to do an incredible job at keeping the spacecraft costs lower than basically any industry precedent,” said Caleb Henry, director of Research.

• Watch the full webinar here.

In Other News

Privateer Raises $56.5M Series A 

(Reuters)

The space data startup funding also allowed for the acquisition of Orbital Insight (who raised $125M+ over four rounds from Sequoia Capital and Google Ventures), which will add mapping and intelligence services to Privateer's offerings. The round was led by Aero X Ventures, with participation from Lux Capital, BOKA Group, Starburst Ventures, and the Winklevoss twins.

Xona Raises $19M Series A 

(Company)

The startup developing a network of smallsats to provide high-precision navigation services will use the capital to accelerate the deployment of their LEO network toward commercialization. The oversubscribed round was led by Future Ventures and Seraphim Space ($SSIT). New participants included NGP Capital, Industrious Ventures, Murata Electronics, Space Capital and Aloniq.

Chart of the Week

Starlink Historical Subscriber Growth

(Source: Quilty Space)

Links

• Virgin Galactic ($SPCE) Begins Operations at Delta Spaceship Ground Testing Facility• Satellogic ($SATL) Expands Reach With New Sales Channel• Rocket Lab ($RKLB) Selects 6 Subcontractors for SDA Constellation Development• Rocket Lab ($RKLB) Completes Archimedes Engine Build & Begins Test Campaign• AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS) Welcomes New Chief Legal Officer• Redwire ($RDW) Successfully Bioprints Live Human Heart Tissue on ISS

Opinion

• The Rising Flood of Space Junk Is a Risk to Us on Earth• Space Economics 101: Why the Math on Refueling Just Doesn’t Add Up• Space Stock Review: April 2024• Interview with Rocket Lab ($RKLB) CEO and CFO• Interview with Rocket Lab ($RKLB) CEO About Q1 Earnings & SpaceX

Earnings Calendar

• $LUNR: May 14 - Before Market Open• $LLAP: May 14 - Before Market Open• $ASTS: May 15 - After Market Close• $SPIR: May 15 - After Market Close• $SIDU: May 15 - After Market Close

*Company confirmed dates only.